The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (～2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.     

A review of the assessments of the major fisheries resources in South Africa

The waters off South Africa's coastline boast a rich mix of commercially fished species. Quantitative assessments of these marine resources have developed from simple methods first applied in the 1970s, to models that encompass a wide range of methodologies. The more valuable resources have undergone regular assessments in recent decades, with frequencies closely related to the management approach employed for each fishery. Many of these assessments form the operating models used to simulation-test candidate management procedures. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the assessments of 11 of the most important fisheries resources in South Africa. Some assessments use simple biomass dynamics models, whereas others are a hybrid of age- and length-based models, each designed to model the specific characteristics of the resource and fishery concerned. Many of the assessments have been disaggregated by species/stock and/or area as related multispecies/stock/ distribution hypotheses have arisen. This paper explores the similarities and differences in the data available and the methods applied. The review indicates that, whereas the status of three of these resources cannot be estimated reliably at present, the status of six resources is considered to be reasonable to good, whereas that of abalone Haliotis midae and West Coast rock lobster Jasus lalandii remains poor.     

Quantifying flows along hydrological pathways by applying a new filtering algorithm in conjunction with master recession curve analysis

Quantifying the proportion of the river hydrograph derived from the different hydrological pathways is essential for understanding the behaviour of a catchment. This paper describes a new approach using the output from master recession curve analysis to inform a new algorithm based on the Lyne and Hollick ‘one‐parameter’ signal analysis filtering algorithm. This approach was applied to six catchments (including two subcatchments of these) in Ireland. The conceptual model for each catchment consists of four main flow pathways: overland flow, interflow, shallow groundwater and deep groundwater. The results were compared with those of the master recession curve analysis, a recharge coefficient approach developed in Ireland and the semi‐distributed, lumped and deterministic hydrological model Nedbør‐Afstrømings‐Model. The new algorithm removes the ‘free variable’ aspect that is typically associated with filtering algorithms and provides a means of estimating the contribution of each pathway that is consistent with the results of hydrograph separation in catchments that are dominated by quick response pathways. These types of catchments are underlain by poorly productive aquifers that are not capable of providing large baseflows in the river. Such aquifers underlie over 73% of Ireland, ensuring that this new algorithm is applicable in the majority of catchments in Ireland and potentially in those catchments internationally that are strongly influenced by the quick‐responding hydrological pathways. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pseudostalaktiten und Verwandtes

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Beiträge zur Geochemie

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Begriff und Bedeutung der Intrusionstektonik

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The Ah receptor in marine animals: phylogenetic distribution and relationship to cytochrome P4501A inducibility

In mammals, the induction of cytochrome P4501A forms by chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, chlorinated dibenzofurans, and halogenated biphenyls is under control of a soluble protein known as the Ah (aromatic hydrocarbon) receptor. Little is known about the presence and properties of the Ah receptor in other vertebrate and invertebrate species. In these studies, we sought evidence for an Ah receptor in the liver or liver-equivalent of 20 species of marine and freshwater animals, using the photoaffinity ligand 2-azido-3-[¹²⁵I] iodo-7,8-dibromodibenzo-p-dioxin (N₃[¹²⁵I]Br₂DD). Specific labeling of cytosolic proteins by N₃[¹²⁵I]Br₂DD was observed in seven species of teleost and elasmobranch fish, in PLHC-I fish hepatoma cells, and in beluga whales. No specifically labeled proteins were found in cytosol from two species of agnathan fish nor in any of nine invertebrate species representing eight classes of four phyla. The presence or absence of specifically labeled polypeptides corresponds with the inducibility of cytochrome P4501A and sensitivity to the toxic effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and related planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons in many of these groups. Thus, Ah receptor function may have arisen early invertebrate evolution and has been conserved from elasmobranch and teleost fish to mammals.     

Sea-level, sediment supply and coastal changes: Examples from the coast of Ireland

Sediment supply and pre-existing shoreline morphology are crucial factors in controlling coastal changes due to sea-level rise. Using examples from both southeast and northeast Ireland, it can be shown that sea-level change may trigger a sequence of events which leads to both static and dynamic shoreline equilibrium. Cliff erosion and longshore sediment movement in east Co. Wexford has led to injection of sediment onto the shelf, and the growth, under both wave and tide regimes, of linear offshore shoals. These shoals now control the pattern of shoreline erosion and provide a template for possible stepwise evolution of the coast under any future sea-level rise. In contrast, the nearby coast of south Co. Wexford comprises a series of coarse clastic barriers moving monotonously onshore, via overwash processes. Here the behavior of the barrier is conditioned by the antecedent morphology of both the beach face and stream outlet bedforms. Finally, the rock platform coast of Co. Antrim presents a far more resistant shoreline to incident marine processes, yet even here there is strong evidence of present process control over so-called ‘raised’ platforms and embayments. It is concluded that coastal sediment supply and dynamics, together with coastal morphology and its interaction with waves, present a far more complex variety of sea-level indicators than is normally acknowledged.     

The effects of sewage discharge on water quality and phytoplankton of Hawai'ian coastal waters

The effects of sewage discharge on algal populations and the quality of Hawai'ian coastal waters were investigated. Two outfalls were studied. One discharges primary treated sewage and the other discharges secondary treated sewage but are otherwise similar. This enabled comparisons of the effects of these different levels of treatment on the water quality and algal productivity of receiving waters. Plumes were followed and repeatedly sampled in a time-series manner. Rhodamine dye was used as a conservative tracer to compare the dilution behavior of the plume constituents MRP, NO(3)+NO(2), NH(4), Silicate, TDP, TDN, total bacteria, PC, and PN. Rates of initial dilution ranged from two to almost three orders of magnitude, and were in reasonable agreement with engineering model predictions. Dilution of plume constituents approximated that of Rhodamine until background concentrations were reached, typically within 10 min of discharge. Chl a concentrations did not increase through time in the primary sewage plume but did increase up to 30% in the secondary sewage plume. However, rates of far-field dilution were so rapid that the increase could not have been due to algal growth. The increase was attributed to the plume mixing with a water mass whose relative chl a concentrations were greater. Rates of secondary dilution ranged from 2 to 3 orders of magnitude resulting in total dilutions of 10(5)-10(6) within 3 h of discharge. These rates of secondary dilution were much greater than model predictions. From a nutrient standpoint, secondary treatment exhibited no advantages over primary treatment because dilutions were so rapid.